Recent Research on Unsheltered Homelessness

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Next week, hundreds of volunteers will fan out across Mecklenburg County to identify, engage, and survey people who are living in unsheltered locations in our community. These efforts help ensure that people experiencing homelessness are seen, counted, and their needs are better understood.

This blog explores recent research on unsheltered homelessness, examining its root causes and the impacts on individuals and communities.

UNSHELTERED HOMELESSNESS: TRENDS, CHARACTERISTICS, AND HOMELESS HISTORIES

Using Point-in-Time Count data through 2019, research from the Urban Institute examined long-term trends in unsheltered homelessness. Their report showed a significant increase in unsheltered homelessness since 2015, driven largely by structural factors rather than individual choice. Communities with fewer affordable units and higher rent burdens consistently see higher rates of unsheltered homelessness, suggesting that the housing market shapes who ends up living outside. At the same time, shelter capacity has declined in many places, leaving insufficient beds to meet the need for temporary shelter. When shelter is available, restrictive rules, lack of privacy, safety concerns, and bans on pets or personal belongings often deter people from accessing it. Together, rising housing costs, limited shelter availability, and system barriers push more people into living unsheltered.

Since this research was published, homelessness overall has continued to increase across the United States. Federal data from 2023 to 2024 show an 18 percent year-over-year increase in the total number of people experiencing homelessness. Experts point to rising housing costs, scarce affordable units, economic challenges, and the end of pandemic-era rental supports as key drivers of these recent increases in both sheltered and unsheltered homelessness.

The studies below examine how system involvement, unmet basic needs, and access to services shape the lived experiences of people who are unsheltered.

PERPETUATING THE CYCLE OF HOMELESSNESS: EXAMINING HOW INCARCERATION IMPACTS UNSHELTERED HOMELESS POPULATIONS

This study found that incarceration significantly worsens housing instability and actively contributes to rising unsheltered homelessness. Using a national survey and in-person interviews with unhoused individuals, researchers showed that more than half of people leaving jail or prison are not housed upon release, with many entering homelessness immediately afterward. Nearly half of those who were housed before incarceration became unsheltered after release, while over 70% of those who were already unsheltered remained so, highlighting the link between criminal justice involvement and unsheltered homelessness. The impact is especially severe for people with a history of unsheltered homelessness, who are far more likely to return to the streets after incarceration. Overall, the research shows that criminalization may reinforce a revolving cycle between incarceration and unsheltered homelessness.

ACCESS TO BASIC NEEDS AND HEALTHCARE BY PEOPLE EXPERIENCING UNSHELTERED HOMELESSNESS

Research from Los Angeles County highlights the severe gaps in access to basic survival needs among people experiencing unsheltered homelessness. Using in-person surveys with 665 individuals receiving street medicine care, the analysis found that fewer than one-quarter had 24-hour access to a bathroom, less than half had showered in the prior two weeks, and most lacked a primary care provider despite many having health insurance. Participants averaged just over eight meals per week and commonly relied on purchasing food and bottled water, which strained their already limited resources. Significant geographic differences in access to essentials were also observed across the county which is consistent with survey responses we have received from people living unsheltered in Mecklenburg County. Even as public investment in housing has increased, these findings suggest that daily survival needs for many people living unsheltered remain largely unmet, worsening health outcomes, and creating additional barriers to engaging in care and securing stable housing.

ENGAGEMENT IN OUTREACH SERVICES AMONG PERSONS EXPERIENCING UNSHELTERED HOMELESSNESS IN A SOUTHWESTERN URBAN COUNTY: A SPATIAL STUDY

This study analyzed where and how people experiencing unsheltered homelessness engage with street outreach services in Maricopa County, Arizona, using 2022 HMIS data covering more than 21,000 outreach contacts with over 8,200 individuals. Researchers found that outreach encounters were concentrated in downtown areas where housing and social services are clustered. Engagement patterns varied significantly by race, ethnicity, and gender, revealing structural inequities in access to services. Black and Asian clients had higher odds of outreach contact downtown, while American Indian/Alaska Native and Hispanic/Latino individuals were less likely to be engaged in those areas. Women were more likely to engage near motels, and people who frequently interacted with outreach teams were more likely to be contacted near downtown, parks, and service hubs. Overall, the findings show that where people live unsheltered strongly shapes their access to help, and that outreach strategies must be geographically targeted and culturally responsive to effectively reach diverse populations and support pathways to housing stability.