Housing Stability, Disaster Risk, and Community Resilience in Mecklenburg County

UNDERSTANDING THE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE ESTIMATE

The Community Resilience Estimate (CRE) measures a community’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptive events such as economic downturns, public health crises, and natural disasters. Using data from the American Community Survey (ACS), the CRE models risk by identifying households with characteristics associated with social vulnerability.

A household is considered more vulnerable when it exhibits one or more of the following characteristics:

• Income below 130% of the federal poverty level
• Single-adult or zero-adult caregiver household
• Overcrowded housing (more than 0.75 persons per room)
• Communication barriers or limited English proficiency
• No household member with a high school diploma
• No full-time, year-round employment
• Disability that constrains daily life activities
• Lack of health insurance
• Household members age 65 or older
• No access to a vehicle
• No access to broadband internet

The CRE aggregates these factors to identify areas with high concentrations of households that are more likely to experience difficulty during and after a disaster. For policymakers, planners, and service providers, the CRE offers a way to anticipate need, guide preparedness efforts, and align resources with communities facing the greatest barriers to recovery.

HOUSING INSTABILITY AS A DRIVER OF VULNERABILITY

Many of the risk factors captured by the CRE, income insecurity, employment instability, overcrowding, disability, and lack of transportation, are closely tied to housing stability. When households lack stable, affordable housing, their ability to respond to disruption is significantly constrained. Housing instability can make it more difficult to maintain employment, access healthcare, evacuate safely, or shelter in place during emergencies, as was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Communities with higher rates of homeownership, sufficient affordable rental housing, and well-maintained housing stock are generally better positioned to recover from disasters and disruptions. CRE data can help identify areas where housing instability compounds social vulnerability and where targeted investments, such as rental assistance, affordable housing development, and pathways to homeownership, may reduce the risk of displacement.

The CRE can also inform where to prioritize critical home repair and resilience investments, ensuring that housing stock is better equipped to withstand extreme weather and other hazards. In addition, CRE data can guide the placement and design of shelters and emergency facilities to ensure they are accessible, ADA-compliant, medically appropriate, and responsive to the needs of vulnerable populations.

COMMUNITY RESILIENCE IN MECKLENBURG COUNTY

At the county level, Mecklenburg County’s CRE indicates a moderate level of resilience relative to other counties in North Carolina. Approximately 16.8% of residents have three or more components of social vulnerability, a lower share than in most counties statewide. However, countywide averages mask substantial variation at the neighborhood level. Several census tracts in Mecklenburg County contain high concentrations of residents who are less likely to withstand or recover quickly from a major disruption.

The five census tracts with the highest share of residents exhibiting three or more vulnerability factors include:

• Census Tract 15.07 (approximately 0.8 square miles bounded by The Plaza, W.T. Harris Boulevard, and Milton Road)
• Census Tract 39.03 (approximately 2.1 square miles bounded by West Boulevard, Yorkmont Road, and Markland Drive)
• Census Tract 16.08 (approximately 1.2 square miles bounded by Shamrock Drive, Eastway Drive, and North Sharon Amity Road)
• Census Tract 23.00 (approximately 0.7 square miles bounded by Randolph Road, Wendover Drive, and Dunn Avenue, including the Grier Heights neighborhood)
• Census Tract 38.07 (approximately 1.5 square miles bounded by I-77, South Boulevard, and Deanna Lane)

Of these tracts, Census Tract 39.03 is a federally designated Opportunity Zone, meaning it met federal low-income thresholds and was designated by the state and certified by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to be eligible for long-term investment tax incentives. Opportunity Zones were designated in 2018 and remain in effect through 2030. The City of Charlotte’s Corridors of Opportunity initiative provides support to six geographic areas in Charlotte but those areas are designated by zip code. Four of the five Census tracts listed above are in zip codes designated as Corridors of Opportunity.

According to 2024 ACS 5-year estimates, the most vulnerable tracts share several characteristics:

Several of these tracts are predominantly female, all are predominantly Black or African American, and most have substantial Hispanic or Latino populations. In addition to these five tracts, 27 other census tracts in Mecklenburg County report that 30% to 45% of residents have three or more components of social vulnerability, indicating broader pockets of elevated risk across the county.